Market News

Have metals bottomed, and have yields peaked? Monetary and fiscal policies will determine both – CME's Norland

Investors attempting to discern whether gold and silver prices have set their cyclical lows, and whether bond yields have already seen their medium-term highs, should look to monetary policy in the near term while watching fiscal policies over the longer term, according to Erik Norland, Managing Director and Chief Economist at CME Group.In a recent analysis, Norland wrote that 2026 began with two

Review & Preview: Rally On

‘We've got a task force for that.' Despite renewed fighting in the Middle East, oil prices fell on Thursday, and all three major indexes posted gains in a broad market rally. Plus, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh announced who will be involved with his task forces aimed at revamping the central bank.

Fed's Warsh taps broad group of central bank outsiders to oversee review

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh tapped a broad and intellectually diverse group of economists and former central ​bankers to oversee the five task forces he is ‌establishing to review the U.S. central bank's operations, covering technical issues like management of its balance sheet as well as forward-leaning ones like the ​impact of artificial intelligence.

June Jobs Report Signals Fed's Inflation Tilt, "MUSES versus AAMMO" AI Dynamics

Despite the June jobs report coming in weaker than expected, @CharlesSchwab's Kevin Gordon considers the inflation story the main focus of the Fed's forward momentum. He urges investors pay attention to the impact it will have on American wallets, as a significant shift in wages will push the Fed toward stronger interest rate hikes.

Kalshi traders see roughly 50% odds of a rate hike in 2026 as Fed is split on policy

The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes issued Wednesday indicated that central bank officials were divided on where rates will be at the end of this year. In turn, Kalshi traders now see a 54% likelihood that the central bank will raise rates this year.

Fed's Logan says Fed open market operations would benefit from voluntary central clearing

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan said on Thursday a shift ​to central clearing in central bank monetary policy ‌operations would likely be a benefit to the financial system.

The Fed's $8 Trillion Balance Sheet Is Sending a Clear Signal

The Federal Reserve is still carrying roughly $8 trillion in assets on its balance sheet, and it is doing so while its preferred inflation gauge climbs and long-term Treasury yields sit near the top of their 12-month range.

Brazil keeps 12% oil export tax, to review measure in 30 days

Brazil's government on Thursday approved ​the extension of a 12% tax on crude oil exports ‌for another 60 days, a measure introduced in March amid rising oil prices linked to the Iran war.

Prediction markets spark insider trading concerns. Here's how Goldman and other companies are responding

Concern over insider trading risk tied to prediction markets is prompting companies to update their policies aimed at protecting their business and employees, legal experts say. Several companies, including Morgan Stanley, have confirmed to CNBC that they either have a policy that addresses this risk or they are working on one.

Kevin Warsh names members of his Federal Reserve task forces, including Marc Andreessen, Doug McMillon

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh on Thursday released names of the experts who will comprise five task forces to examine the institution's operations.

Fed's Williams Says Inflation Still Too High, Expects Retreat in Energy Prices

New York Federal Reserve President John Williams noted that policy would have to respond if inflation ends up being more persistent and meaningfully higher than his baseline forecast.

Iran Conflict Reorders The Bond Market's Hierarchy Of Havens

The Iran war has scrambled the old map of safety, leaving bond investors rethinking which havens still deserve the name. Perhaps the most surprising trend since the conflict began: bank loans have outperformed the rest of the field by a wide margin, based on a set of ETFs through yesterday's close (July 8).