HomeIndicatorsNewsSoraMacro BriefsArticlesEconomic CalendarHistory
Language
Market open·Macro & geopolitical analysis of gold (XAU/USD) — DXY, real yields, central bank demand, COT positioning, ETF flows and more.

Gold (XAU/USD) — OCT 12, 2026, 01:24 PM UTC

$4,173.18USD/oz
▼ $21.47 · -0.51%today · open $4,189.59
●connecting...
L: $4,158  ·  H: $4,214
$4,20010:09 PM1:59 AM5:49 AM9:34 AM1:24 PM
Open detailed chart →
50
/100
Gold Macro Environment
NEUTRAL
4 bullish · 4 bearish of 14 indicators
What's driving gold right now?

These indicators explain the vast majority of gold's daily price movements. Each one has a direct, measurable influence on XAU/USD.

Bearish / Bullish reflects the current reading's impact on gold — not the indicator's own direction

~100% influence on gold·↗ Click any indicator to see its full analysis
Structural & geopolitical drivers
LONG TERM

These factors don't move gold tomorrow — they move it over weeks, months, or years. They are the foundation on which daily moves are built.

🏦
Central Bank Purchases
Structural · months/years
Reaccelerating
850.1t (2025)
updated weekly

China quietly made its biggest gold grab since 2023, and it paid up to do it

Read full analysis →
🌐
De-dollarization
Structural · years/decade
Quiet erosion
updated weekly

Nobody is dumping the dollar, they are just trusting it less as a rainy-day fund

Read full analysis →
⚔️
Geopolitical Risk
Situational · weeks/months
Elevated and sticky
177.504333 GPR
updated daily

Trump's touted Ukraine energy truce fell apart within hours, and gold's risk premium isn't going anywhere

Read full analysis →
⛏️
Mine Supply Constraints
Structural · years
Stuck in a range
3814.6t (2025)
updated weekly

One mine's stumble and another's grand opening show how stubborn gold supply still is

Read full analysis →
Factor attribution — today's movement
DXY (Dollar weakness)4%
Real Yield (Yield decline)32%
VIX / Risk (Safe haven demand)52%
ETF Flows (GLD Holdings)2%
Other factors10%

Estimated relative weight of each factor in today's +$24.50 movement. Calculated based on historical correlations and the magnitude of each variable's move.

DXY102.41▲ +0.20%
Real Yield2.87%▼ 1.71%
VIX15.5▲ +4.38%
GLD Flows1006t▲ +0.20%