↑ GPR rises → Gold rises ↑Source: Caldara & Iacoviello GPR Index — matteoiacoviello.com (CC BY)·Daily index · updated weekly
Index (avg = 100)
NO DATA
What is the GPR?
The Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) measures how much world tensions are dominating the news. It counts articles about wars, terrorist attacks, nuclear threats, and political crises across 10 major newspapers. A score of 100 is the historical average (1985–2019). Above 150 means the world feels unusually dangerous. We use the daily version of the index (smoothed over 7 days), published by the same researchers, which updates weekly instead of monthly.
How does it affect gold?
↑ Rule: When GPR rises → gold tends to rise
When the world feels dangerous, investors buy gold to protect their wealth. Gold has no political risk — it can't be sanctioned, frozen, or defaulted on.
When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, GPR spiked above 200 and gold jumped over $200 in weeks. When the Middle East escalated in 2023–2024, the same pattern repeated.