The MOVE Index is the bond market's version of the VIX — it measures how nervous investors are about the direction of US interest rates over the next month. When MOVE spikes, nobody agrees on where rates are going.
A MOVE below 80 means bond markets are calm. Above 100 signals significant uncertainty. Above 130 means the bond market is in serious stress.
How does it affect gold?
↑ Rule: When MOVE (Bond Vol) rises → gold tends to rise
When bond markets are chaotic, investors look for something stable — and gold fits perfectly. It has no maturity date, no coupon, no default risk. When MOVE spikes:
• The Fed's next move becomes unpredictable → uncertainty favors gold
• Investors flee bond volatility for the safety of physical assets → gold rises
Simple rule: MOVE high = bond market scared = gold tends to rise.